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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

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A | 　　盛夏饮料销售旺季，终端货架却呈现出不同景象。

B | 　　近日，社交媒体话题#冰柜饮料C位大洗牌#持续引发热议。

C | WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。北京多家便利店的货架陈列显示，传统甜味饮料、部分功能饮料及新品的展示位置相对靠后；无糖茶和植物饮料则获得更多冰柜陈列资源。

D | 品类之间的差距，首先体现在消费者打开冰柜后的几秒钟里。　　随着控糖从部分消费者的主动选择逐渐转为更广泛的健康需求，无糖饮料正显现出新一轮放量迹象，饮料消费逻辑已从追求快乐刺激转向寻找健康轻负担，终端陈列的饮料位置洗牌，正是这场消费迁移的直观缩影。　　旺季未普遍升温，消费者开始“挑配料表”　　在紧邻北京站的一家便利店内，进店消费者大多带着明确的出行目的：赶车、到站或短暂停留。饮料购买通常只需几秒钟——打开冰柜、挑选一瓶、结账离开。　　一位准备乘车出行的消费者表示，自己现在购买饮料时会关注糖分和配料表；选择好自在，主要是因为“喝起来比较清爽，不会太甜，感觉少一些负担”。　　从北京多家门店的冰柜陈列看，无糖茶和植物饮料获得的展示空间有所增加；多位消费者则提到，糖分、配料和口感清爽度是购买时会考虑的因素。　　高温天气下，饮料仍是典型的即时消费品，但消费者对甜度和配料的要求更高。除解渴外，是否清爽不腻、是否容易入口，也会影响购买决定。过去，品牌、价格和口感刺激度是饮料消费的重要决策因素；如今，越来越多消费者在购买饮料时，也会关注糖分、配料以及饮用后的感受。　　元气森林旗下好自在品线相关负责人此前接受中国城市报记者采访时表示，市场调研发现，消费者对配料表中健康属性的重视程度，整体高于品牌、包装等外在因素。这意味着，植物饮料正由尝鲜型消费，逐步进入更多消费者的日常饮用场景。　　一位便利店经营者表示，今年夏季消费者对无糖茶和植物饮料的询问有所增加，但产品能否持续走量，仍取决于冰柜位置、价格和补货效率。　　从“0糖”到“健康+”，无糖饮料寻找第二轮增量　　消费者开始查看配料表，并不是今年夏季才出现的现象。

E | 过去十年，无糖饮料已经完成了第一轮消费者教育。　　前瞻产业研究院发布的《中国中式养生水行业发展趋势洞察报告(2026)》显示：2015年至2025年，我国无糖饮料市场规模增长近28倍，年均复合增长率约39.4%，占软饮料市场的比重由0.7%上升至13%。　　无糖饮料市场基数扩大后，品类内部仍在继续分化。尼尔森IQ在《解构中国饮料行业增长新势能》中显示，截至2025年6月的滚动年度，在即饮茶细分市场中，纯无糖产品销售额同比增长38%，低糖产品增长13%。　　同期，即饮茶在饮料行业中的销售额份额升至23.2%，较2019年的17.6%明显提高。电解质饮料、椰子水、植物饮料等强调健康属性的细分品类，也保持较快增长。　　不过，新一轮增长与无糖饮料早期扩张的逻辑并不完全相同。

F | 上一轮市场主要解决消费者是否接受“0糖”的问题；当无糖成为越来越多产品的基础配置，下一轮竞争将转向口感、配料、原料来源、功能属性和消费场景。

G | 　　健康需求向植物饮料延伸　　无糖茶之外，植物饮料也在承接健康消费带来的增量。　　前瞻产业研究院发布的《中国中式养生水行业发展趋势洞察报告(2026)》显示，2025年红豆薏米水、红枣枸杞水等即饮植物饮料的市场规模较2022年跃升35倍，预计到2030年将较2025年再增长6倍以上。

H | 　　市场扩容吸引了更多参与者。按该报告统计口径，2025年好自在产品在中式养生水细分市场的份额为50.8%，仍居首位；传统饮料巨头也纷纷入场。　　参与者增加后，植物饮料市场正从品类教育转向产品品质、价格和供应链效率的综合竞争。消费者不仅关注原料种类，也开始关心原料产地、生产稳定性和口感一致性。首都保健营养美食学会副会长、北京卫视《养生堂》特邀嘉宾李润庭指出，谷物食材最大的安全隐患是黄曲霉毒素这类一级致癌物，品质管控严格的品牌会通过专属种植基地从源头把关。以好自在为例，其在黑龙江、宁夏等地合作建设专属种植基地，原料无硫磺熏制、无超标农残、全流程可追溯，从源头杜绝食品安全风险。好自在红豆薏米水选用黑龙江“珍珠红”红小豆和贵州小薏米，研发团队曾对40余款红豆进行盲测，最终选中出沙率较低、汤色清亮的品种。

I | 此外，好自在的原料还涉及新疆红枣、宁夏枸杞、内蒙古绿豆等产区，生产端采用熬煮与无菌冷灌装工艺。　　原料透明化也在加速。上述报告显示，2023年至2025年，公开原料产地信息的品牌占比由47%升至55%，自主生产品牌占比由21%升至34%。　　对消费者而言，原料和工艺最终仍要落到实际饮用体验上——口感是否清爽、风味是否稳定，将决定产品能否形成持续复购。　　品质投入成为增长支点　　从消费者重新审视配料表，到无糖茶和植物饮料获得更多终端资源，健康需求正在改变饮料行业的增长方向。